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Bayes' theorem

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Bayes' theorem

In statistics, a theorem relating the probability of particular events taking place to the probability that events conditional upon them have occurred.

For example, the probability of picking an ace at random out of a pack of cards is 4/52. If two cards are picked out, the probability of the second card being an ace is conditional on the first card: if the first card is an ace the probability of drawing a second ace will be 3/51; if not it will be 4/51. Bayes' theorem gives the probability that given that the second card is an ace, the first card is also.



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? Mentioned in ? References in periodicals archive
 
the lower range reported for SMART/ALERT), we can calculate the posttest probability of anthrax with both positive and negative test results by using Bayes' theorem (40).
Evaluating detection and diagnostic decision support systems for ... by Owens, Douglas K. / Emerging Infectious Diseases
We combined the individual projections derived from these different databases using Bayes' theorem, described previously (17,18) to yield a single prediction of carcinogenicity.
Estimating the extent of the health hazard posed by high-production ... by Rosenkranz, Herbert S. / Environmental Health Perspectives
Thus, they see Bayes' theorem as a mathematical expression of how people should think about events such as these.
Rational mind designs: research into the ecology of thought treads on ... by Bower, Bruce / Science News
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