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Bayes' theorem
(redirected from Bayes rule)

    Also found in: Medical, Wikipedia 0.04 sec.

Bayes' theorem

In statistics, a theorem relating the probability of particular events taking place to the probability that events conditional upon them have occurred.

For example, the probability of picking an ace at random out of a pack of cards is 4/52. If two cards are picked out, the probability of the second card being an ace is conditional on the first card: if the first card is an ace the probability of drawing a second ace will be 3/51; if not it will be 4/51. Bayes' theorem gives the probability that given that the second card is an ace, the first card is also.



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? Mentioned in ? References in periodicals archive
 
Given the data observed, application of Bayes rule enables estimation of the posterior distribution of both the size and time of attack, from which summary statistics such as the mean, standard deviation, and probability intervals of the attack size and time are easily estimated.
Estimating time and size of bioterror attack by Kaplan, Edward H. / Emerging Infectious Diseases
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