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scenario planning

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scenario planning

Testing of business strategies against a range of alternative futures. The term was invented in the 1940s by US futurist Herman Kahn at the Rand Corporation and Hudson Institute.

The word scenario, used in scriptwriting to describe a detailed outline of a film plot, was suggested by Kahn's friend, Hollywood screenwriter and novelist Leo Rosten. Scenario planning was adopted at Royal Dutch Shell during the 1960s. Strategic planners at the company tried looking up to 30 or 40 years ahead and getting people to discuss the ‘unthinkable’ together. The technique enabled Shell to predict the energy crises of 1973 and 1979, the growth of energy conservation, and the evolution of the global environmental movement, years before they happened.



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