seismic gap theory

Theory that along faults that are known to be seismically active, or in regions of high seismic activity, the locations that are more likely to experience an earthquake in the relatively near future are those that have not shown seismic activity for some time. When records of past earthquakes are studied and plotted onto a map, it becomes possible to identify seismic gaps along a fault or plate margin. According to the theory, an area that has not had an earthquake for some time will have a great deal of stress building up, which must eventually be released, causing an earthquake.

Although the seismic gap theory can suggest areas that are likely to experience an earthquake, it does not enable scientists to predict when that earthquake will occur.