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chance
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chance

Likelihood, or probability, of an event taking place, expressed as a fraction or percentage. For example, the chance that a tossed coin will land heads up is 50%.

As a science, it originated when the Chevalier de Méré consulted Blaise Pascal about how to reduce his gambling losses. In 1664, in correspondence with another mathematician, Pierre de Fermat, Pascal worked out the foundations of the theory of chance. This underlies the science of statistics.
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